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It’s March everyone. Time for the most publicized conference tournament to take center stage again, on the biggest stage in the country. Welcome to Madison Square Garden, where last second shots can keep your tournament chances alive or not count at all. Where the magic of Six Overtimes happens. Where the city’s eyes take focus on some of the best teams in the country to restore New York’s fervent love for basketball. Let’s get it started.

This year, Syracuse won the league by a comfortable two games. They come in as the favorite and the #1 seed. But they, along with the other teams seeded in the top 4 (Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Villanova) will all have to sit for two days, blessed or cursed by the Big East’s double bye structure. First tip off begins on Tuesday at Noon, with the surprising South Florida Bulls facing the perennially depressing DePaul Blue Demons. Here’s the EJSIC’s preview of this week’s action in the most famous arena in the world.

Seeds:

1) Syracuse
2) Pittsburgh
3) West Virginia
4) Villanova
5) Marquette
6) Louisville
7) Notre Dame
8 ) Georgetown
9) South Florida
10) Seton Hall
11) Cincinnati
12) Connecticut
13) St. John’s
14) Rutgers
15) Providence
16) DePaul

Here’s how the bracket looks.

Now let’s predict the action!

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Al's new way of watching tournament action

For the better part of a month, I’ve been trying to pretend that the current men’s college basketball season is nothing but a nightmare and that when I wake up, it’ll be October 2009. (Unfortunately, that would mean that I haven’t gotten the substantial raise I was given in 2010–but hey, what’s 25% more salary when the Tar Heels are the epitome of major basketball suckage?) So, for much of February, I avoided watching most games, and instead developed an avid interest in world soccer.

This all changed when my daughter and I decided to join the cadillac of torture chambers fitness clubs–an amazing three-story megaplex of all things workout-related. This place has more HD flat-screen TVs on the wall than the biggest sports bar in Raleigh and there are even small TVs on some of their exercise equipment.

Because my workout program is designed to kill me before I get healthy, I have to spend a lot of time at the fitness club and there’s no way to avoid college basketball and workout at that place, because 80% of their approximately 8 million TVs have been tuned to men’s college basketball tournament play. Plus, I always feel obligated to watch as much of the ACC Tournament as possible based on the fact when I remember when winning that tournament was almost as big a deal as winning the National Championship. I also remember how, basically, all work used to stop in the state of North Carolina during that time and everyone knew, to the minute, what was happening, thanks to small TVs and radios smuggled into the office.

As a result, I now feel qualified (not that one really needs to feel qualified to write something here at EJSIC) make these observations based on what I’ve seen, as well as raise some rhetorical questions.

This is a men's college basketball score? Seriously?

First and foremost, the scores of most of these games seem abnormally low. Out of the 39 Division I games played yesterday, not a single team made it to 90 points and only three teams had scores above 80. And not a single one of those games had both teams with a score of 80 or above. One of the big games of the night–West Virginia and Notre Dame–had a final score of 53-51. Duke’s win over Virginia was 57 to 48. 57? 48? What is this, college football? These kinds of scores are expected in the Big 10, where for years, making baskets has not been as important as preventing them, but when teams in conferences known for high-scoring offenses, such as the ACC and Big East, have scores that would make Wisconsin and Illinois fans sigh with envy, I have to wonder what’s going on. Is this year’s crop of teams really that good defensively? Some might argue that this is so, but I really think that there’s been a lot of really sloppy play this week.

My next observation relates more to the ACC than it does the other conferences, although I’ve seen glimmers of it in the SEC, Big East and PAC

The layup...soon to be a lost art?

10, too. It really does appear that many of the ACC players I’ve watched are lacking some basic basketball skills such as inbounding, passing, layups and free throws. The Tar Heels in particular sucked at all four. However, watching both the Miami and Virginia Tech game and the Maryland and Georgia Tech games yesterday, I started cringing every time anyone went to the free-throw line, tried to inbound the ball, headed to the basket to attempt a layup or tried to get the ball to another player down the court. I’m left wondering what these guys actually do during practice. Three-point shots? Traveling without seeming to? Flopping? What’s happened to working on the basics? There’s no excuse for missing an easy layup or consistently screwing up a pass. There’s also no excuse for letting 3 minutes go by without either team scoring a basket, especially when there’s no evidence that either team has a good defense.

Thirdly, I’d like to know when all the tournament refs got together and agreed not to call 90% of the fouls committed by either team in any tournament. I’ve seen an enormous amount of hacking, attacking, bruising and pushing going on while the refs stood idly by, apparently incapable of using their whistles. I guess I should be happy that they don’t seem to be favoring one team over another in these games, but honestly, it’s getting to the point where you have to wonder if we should just get rid of the notion of fouling all together if so many flagrant fouls are going unpunished.

I don’t want to seem like a total curmudgeon (although I fear I’m becoming one as I age and the years I’ve followed basketball creep toward 35), so I want to be clear that I’ve seen some good things in these games.

For example, I’ve enjoyed very much the resurgence of the zone defense–especially the zone defense played well.  I’ve also seen some excellent individual play, such as that of Derrick Favors, Sherron Collins and John Wall.  Also, the number of upsets in these tournaments has had me on the edge of my comfortable fake leather-couch or treadmill (if I’m at the fitness club) and I love that. My hat’s especially off to San Diego State, Minnesota, Miami (FL) and the Woofies of N.C. State for shocking everyone. I also still can’t believe that Georgetown knocked off my new bandwagon team, Syracuse. I still think the Orange can win it all, though.

Of course, the upsets beg questions that I still can’t answer–have they happened because this is one of the weakest years for men’s college basketball? Or is it because so many teams know that their tickets are already punched for the NCAA tournament so they don’t care? Or is it because so many bubble teams want to get in so badly that they play out of their minds and upset a higher seed or favorite? What do y’all think? Let me know.

Colonial League Kings: The ODU Monarchs celebrate their ticket to the Big Dance.

On a final note, I’m going to make a little plug for a Cinderella team: The Old Dominion Monarchs. One of the nicest guys at my high school is their associate coach. They’ve had a really nice home winning streak going and they won their conference. It should be fun to watch them play.

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Selection Show Live Blog

We will be live blogging the CBS NCAA Tournament Selection Show tomorrow at 6pm EST. Be sure to stop by and revel in the madness.

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Bubble Team Movement

As we’ve looked at in some previous articles (1 and 2), there is some movement by teams in the RPI between the start of conference play and the end of the regular season. Shred Torn pointed out that one of the most important places that a team should be concerned with would be movement of bubble teams. So, let’s artificially look at who was ranked between 35 and 75 on January 12th and how far those teams moved by March 8th. Likewise, I’ll also explore the teams that ended the season in that range and identify where they started the conference slate.

January 12th with March 8th ranking in parentheses:
35. Texas A&M (12)
36. Texas Tech (71)
37. Clemson (27)
38. San Diego State (36)
39. Old Dominion (33)
40. Siena (37)
41. North Carolina (85)
42. Marshall (62)
43. Baylor (8)
44. Georgia Tech (44)
45. Minnesota (78)
46. Louisville (30)
47. VCU (65)
48. Western Kentucky (125)
49. Nevada (64)
50. Harvard (95)
51. Southern Cal (108)
52. Mississippi State (69)
53. Notre Dame (59)
54. Western Carolina (116)
55. Missouri (38)
56. Cincinnati (68)
57. Mississippi (57)
58. Northeastern (72)
59. Wichita State (45)
60. Missouri State (92)
61. Ohio State (29)
62. St. John’s (76)
63. Washington (49)
64. Arizona (87)
65. Oakland (61)
66. Louisiana Tech (80)
67. Alabama (98)
68. Northwestern (117)
69. Western Michigan (152)
70. Illinois (75)
71. South Carolina (84)
72. Miami (123)
73. Florida State (35)
74. Virginia Tech (50)
75. Murray State (60)

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Disclaimer: This article is going to mention elementary mathematics and will in no way be about tits.

It's time to dance.

So, in this 3 part analysis of the RPI between January 12th and March 8th (the start of conference play and the end of the regular season), I’ve so far pointed out that 60% of teams only move 25 places, either up or down, during conference play. Conversely, 40% of teams move more than 25 places up or down.

But what happens to teams generally in a conference? If you play in a really powerful conference, would you expect RPIs to generally improve as every team is playing a difficult strength of schedule? Or would you expect a conference with a lot of top tier teams to beat the other teams, sending their RPIs spiraling downward, while not being able to move much higher? I decided to look at the big 6 – ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, SEC, and Pac10 – along with the A-10, who is probably as strong or stronger than some of those conferences this year. For the most part, I’ll look at the RPIs averaged per team to standardize across conferences. In other situations, I might analyze percentage of teams, again, to standardize across conferences with variable numbers of teams.

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Welcome to the EJSIC’s Live Coverage of the SEC Tournament. I’ll give you updates as the night progresses.

7:15 – Florida vs. The world in here tonight. Kentucky fans making their preference heard.

7:38 – By the way, if anyone ever offers complementary parking, decline. Gonna be an effing 30 walk later on……

7:41 – Florida playing like garbage. They’re in easily with even a close loss, but a blowout could leave them sweating it on Selection Sunday.

7:48 – Boynton against the world.

7:51 – Boynton, Parsons, and Walker have 41 of Florida’s 45 points. BTW, no cowbell for MSU tonight. I’m told that’s a football only concept.

8:10 – Tension is rising in the stands. Some drunk guy just spilled the lady behind me’s $5 bottle of water. Meanwhile, Florida has clawed back to within 10.

8:21 – My 2 good buddies that are Florida fans scalped 2 tickets right in the middle of the Miss St section. Sucks for them. That’s a rowdy bunch.

8:25 – I believe there is something stuck in Dan Werner’s throat…..”chokin on a splinta”

8:35 – Well, that turned out to be a good ending. Florida saved face with a close finish. Put both these teams in the Dance.

Flask is empty. This sucks……

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In college basketball, much is made of a team’s RPI numbers. The Rankings Percentage Index is a mathmatical calculation that weights a team’s schedule, their opponents’ schedules, home and away games, wins and losses, and a variety of other meaningful calculations to determine relative ranks of each college basketball team. While there are too many division 1 schools to possibly have every team play, playing 30 games with many teams playing similar opponents, the RPI provides a rough estimate of a team’s actual standing amongst their peers.

While that is all well and good, the important question is understanding when it is a useful metric. Early in the season, when a team has only played 4-5 games, it is obviously not a useful tool. At the final horn of the final game of the regular season, it is obviously as complete as it will get all year. But at what point in between does it transition from incomplete, worthless piece of shit to helpful and informative tool? Shred Torn and myself had just such a discussion.

This was on January 12th, 2010, several days into the start of the conference slate. At this point, most teams had played approximately 15 games all year. The season was half way over. Would it appropriate to start using the RPI to justify discussions of various teams? The best way to analyze that is to check out the changes. On January 12, the top 10 was:
1. Duke 13-2
2. West Virginia 12-2
3. Temple 13-3
4. Kansas State 13-2
5. Syracuse 15-1
6. Connecticut 11-4
7. Villanova 15-1
8. Kansas 14-1
9. Kentucky 17-0
10. Rhode Island 12-2

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Luke Warm Linkage

Happy Friday everyone. Enjoy pretending to work while frantically updating scores and this video.

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