College Football Expansion Hoopla V2.0

Will the USC Song Girls cheer for the Trojans or the Longhorns in the 2012 Pac-10 Championship Game?

This topic has consumed about 70% of my sports related attention this month and Expansion Hoopla V1.0 got a lot of hits, so let’s do it again…

A lot has changed in a week (actually not really; the only thing that has changed is my mind).  This super-long post lacks pictures or graphics and is broken down into several text-heavy sections.  If you just want to bitch about the conference or the Pod I put your school in, scroll to the bottom and comment.  If you are a conference expansion junkie like me, sit back and enjoy my rambling inferences and analysis.

The first part of this post explains what I have inferred based on recent comments from relevant conference commissioners, university Presidents, AD’s, and insiders.

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-Maryland and North Carolina have likely both told the Big Ten to pound sand.  They like the ACC for now.

-Texas probably isn’t going to the Big Ten either.  They are more interested in merging the cream of the crop from the Big Twelve with the Pac-10, possibly as a simple six team addition to form the Pac-16 and possibly as a “Western Alliance” with a looser conference connection and as many as 24 schools.

-Nebraska and Missouri are dying to be invited to the Big Ten.  Even Tom Osbourne issued a statement saying as much.  Both schools’ Presidents are already on record as being very interested.

-Oklahoma and Oklahoma State want an SEC invite.  They might get invited to the Pac-16 with Texas or they might not.  They prefer the certainty and immediate prestige the SEC brings.

-Kansas is on the fence between the Big Ten and the Texas led Pac-16.  Either way, they’ll probably be in a better position than they are now.  There is a slim chance that they could end up homeless if the Big Ten invites Missouri and Nebraska and the Pac-10 and Texas don’t invite them to be one of the five teams to join the Pac-16.

-Utah is probably going to the Pac-10 / Pac-12 / Pac-16  regardless of what else happens.

-Boise State to the MWC is a done deal.  Makes sense for all parties and the MWC will need someone to replace Utah if they leave for the Pac-10 or BYU if they leave for the Western Alliance.  Expect this announcement in June.

-Rutgers to the Big Ten is a done deal.  Paul Taglibue’s disparaging comments about the potential Long Island television audience for a Rutgers-Minnesota game reek of bitterness.  If this announcement is made in June then Rutgers will be able to play Big Ten football in 2012.

-Pittsburgh, Syracuse,  and Connecticut would all love a Big Ten invite.  Each has serious drawbacks, but each brings added East Coast viewers.  Pitt’s drawback is that is brings the fewest viewers since Penn State already owns the Pennsylvania market.  Syracuse’s problem is that they are a medium sized private school that doesn’t do much research and has a horrible football stadium.  Connecticut is not a member of the AAU and their football program has zero tradition and limited national appeal.  If the Big Ten goes to 16, one of these three schools is likely to be selected.  I think Pittsburgh has the best chance.

-No one knows what the hell Notre Dame is going to do.  My guess on their decision and the decisions of others is in the next part of this super-long post.
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-Sometime in June, the Big Ten announces it is inviting Nebraska, Missouri, Rutgers, Pitt, and Notre Dame to apply for membership.

-Rutgers and Pitt state plans to apply immediately.  Nebraska and Missouri take an extra day before making the same announcement.  Notre Dame dilly-dallies for a week or two, but realizes that the Big East is not going to be functional enough for them to play non-football sports in.  They agree to join the Big Ten before it is shut off to them forever (if they decline, Kansas or Syracuse gets invited the next day).

-The Big Ten Presidents begrudgingly vote all five applicants in (requires 8 of 11 votes, which is part of the reason an East/West expansion makes sense).

-Texas and the Pac-10 meet to discuss a partnership.  The ten remaining Big Twelve schools are on the table, along with Utah, BYU, and possibly Colorado State (large state university that is better academically than it gets credit for and would be a great pair with Colorado).

-Texas asks the Pac-10 to invite Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado.  Stanford piisses and moans about the academic direction the league is taking.  They threaten to vote against all six schools if Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are included.  Texas makes it clear that Texas Tech and Texas A&M are in or the deal if off, but backs down on the Oklahoma schools.  The non-California schools in the Pac-10 want Utah and BYU.  Stanford piisses and moans some more.  Things get ugly.

-Eventually, the Pac-10 abandons its paired structure and invites Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Kansas, Colorado, and Utah.  Stanford is convinced to stop crying because BYU is excluded and Kansas and Utah are upgrades over the Oklahoma schools academically and geographically.

-The SEC picks up Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, which have nowhere else to go.  North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia tell the SEC to pound sand, but Miami agrees to switch leagues.  The SEC picks up West Virginia to round out the league and match the Big Ten and the Pac-16.

-The ACC is upset with the Big Ten and the SEC for trying to poach Maryland, North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia, and for successfully poaching Miami.  They are the last to act however, and with 11 teams, the ACC needs to add five more to stay competitive.

-The five remaining Big East football schools Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, Louisville, and Syracuse are obvious candidates.  Memphis, East Carolina, Central Florida, Temple, and Buffalo are also in the mix.  Hell, the homeless ex-Big Twelvers Kansas State, Iowa State, and Baylor want in, too.

-Syracuse and Connecticut are obviously invited due to quality academics and athletics.  Buffalo is in as the fastest growing New York school, the third ranked undergraduate and research school of all the candidates, and the soon to be only sports program in a medium sized city (after the Bills skip town).

-Baylor is a quality academic school with 28,000 students and good athletic facilities, but it is super far away.  Same deal for Iowa State, but slightly worse academics and historical athletic success.  Kansas State is another step down.  South Florida and Central Florida have limited appeal and are Tier 3 academically.  East Carolina is not quite there in academics or athletics yet.

-That leaves Temple, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Memphis fighting for the last two spots.  All of them are invited to submit comprehensive applications to the ACC.  None of the schools is really good enough academically, but Louisville and Memphis promise to improve and get the invites.

-Conference USA kicks out Tulane and UAB, which have a combined one winning season in the last eight years.  South Florida, Cincinnati, and Iowa State join.

-The Mountain West adds Boise State, Nevada, Kansas State, and Baylor to get to 12.

-The Sun Belt grabs Louisiana State from the crumbling WAC, plus Tulane and UAB.

-The WAC is down to six schools and tries to get a bunch of FCS schools to move up to FBS so that it can have the necessary eight football teams.  To  qualify, a school needs to be in FCS now and needs to have averaged 15,000 attendees or paid attendees in one of the last two years.  Likely candidates to join the WAC are Montana, Montana State, North Dakota State, and South Dakota State.  Fringe candidates are California-Davis, California Polytechnic, and Sacramento State.

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-The 2010 football and basketball season go on as scheduled.

-Football and all other college sports are in commotion in 2011 as schools change conferences at different times and in different sports, Bowls and conferences scramble to establish quality tie-ins, and the NCAA reworks the basketball tournament yet again.

-The rest of this super-long post details what the college football landscape might look like in 2012.
.

——————————–
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SEC
POD A ~ South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Miami
POD B ~ Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi, Missippi State
POD C ~ Arkansas, LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
POD D ~ Vandy, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia
.
.
ACC

POD A ~ North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake
POD B ~ Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville
POD C ~ Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Memphis
POD D ~ Boston College, Connecticut, Syracuse, Buffalo
.
.
Big Ten+

POD A ~ Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Penn State, Ohio State
POD B ~ Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Purdue
POD C ~ Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois, Missouri
POD D ~ Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota
.
.
Pac-16

POD A ~ Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State
POD B ~ Stanford, California, UCLA, USC
POD C ~ Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
POD D ~ Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Kansas
.
.
-These leagues play a nine game conference schedule in one of two ways:

1)  Three games against your pod and two games against each of the other pods
-Pac-10 adopts this so schools in Pod A and Pod C get one game in California and Texas every year.  ACC probably does too.

OR

2)  Three games against your pod, one game against a permanent rival in each of the other pods, and three games against the remainder of one of the other pods
-Big Ten adopts this to keep all annual rivalries intact.  SEC probably does too.
.
.
-They play three non-conference games.

-Winners of the four pods face off in double-headers at traditional conference championship game cities.  The #1 seed plays the #4 seed and the #2 seed plays the #3 seed.

-Winners of the two games in each of the four conferences play in the four BCS Bowls.

-After the BCS Bowls, a Plus-One pairs the two most impressive winners in a Mythical National Championship Game played at rotating cities a la the Super Bowl.
.
.
-The four remaining 12 team conferences play eight game conference schedules followed by a championship game.  They also play four non-conference games per year against FBS teams.  They continue to participate in the bowls, and while they are technically eligible to be selected for the Plus-One MNC game following the bowls, it never happens.
.
.
Mountain West

EAST ~ Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico
WEST ~ San Diego State, UNLV, Nevada, Boise State, BYU, Wyoming
.
.
Conference USA

EAST ~ S Florida, C Florida, S Mississippi, E Carolina, Marshall, Cincinnati,
WEST ~ Tulsa, Houston, Southern Methodist, Rice, UTEP, Iowa State
.
.
Mid American

EAST ~ Temple, Ohio, Miami OH, Kent State, Akron, Bowling Green
WEST ~ Toledo, Ball State, N Illinois, C Michigan, W Michigan, E Michigan
.
.
Sun Belt
EAST ~ Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Troy, UAB, Middle Tenn, W Kentucky
WEST ~ La-Lafayette, La-Monroe, La Tech, Tulane, Arkansas State, North Texas
.
.
Independent

Army, Navy
Hawaii, San Jose State, Fresno State, Idaho, Utah State, New Mexico State
.
.
.
Net change in BCS

IN ~ Utah (and Orrin Hatch), Notre Dame*, Memphis, Buffalo
OUT ~ Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, Cincinnati, S Florida

5 thoughts on “College Football Expansion Hoopla V2.0

  1. Even given the current leadership at Kansas, who will do anything for money, history and tradition means a lot. I can’t see them abandoning the Big XII or allowing any original Big 8 schools to leave. That said, if Missouri and/or Nebraska leave for the Big 10+, Kansas will lead the charge to draw Colorado State and some other lower-tier school (Missouri State, UMKC, or TCU? not likely, but possible) into a new Big XII. If Texas bails before that can come to pass, I can’t see Kansas following Texas. It’s more likely Kansas and Kansas State would join Conference-USA than go out west, especially if it means being in the same pod as the Texas teams. Kansas would rather be a shark in a pond full of guppies than be amongst other sharks during conference play. They’d let Texas go in a heartbeat, and only be sad about Nebraska & Missouri because of history. But, as I said before, Kansas will do anything if the AD sees enough dollar signs.

    Also, I think the focus on keeping 16-team conferences is misplaced. Makes mathematical sense, yes, but not to the detriment of keeping schools together geographically. True, air travel has made geography pretty moot for the teams, but it’s still important to enable fans to travel for their teams, and there’s also the socio-psychological factor. The Rockies and the Central/Eastern time zone line are psychological barriers to many on either side of these lines: as far as I can tell, those on the east coast think less of everyone west of them, those in the middle generally consider drive time east-west but not so much north-south, and the folks west of the mountains seldom consider any place to the east as worth visiting. Any connections between these three zones are usually due to family ties, and there’s the sentiment that people on the coasts would rather travel to the opposite coast than visit ‘flyover country’. There are subdivisions, of course, and some crossover in the southeast and southwest, but in my experience the above observations typically hold true.

  2. A couple corrections:
    I think you meant Boise State to the MWC, not MVC.
    Rutgers is not in Long Island so I don’t understand that one either.

  3. Dones, thanks for your comment. Interesting perspective on Kansas.

    Shred, thanks for the correction. Here is a snippet of a comment new Big East consultant Paul Taglibue made to the New York Times:

    “One of the real challenges for the networks is to provide value, but you only provide value in markets where you provide traction,” he said. “Is Minnesota and Rutgers going to get a big rating on Long Island? Give me a break. Every game isn’t Michigan and Michigan State.” He added, “Am I going to rush home from a tennis game on Saturday to watch Minnesota and Rutgers if I live on Long Island?”

  4. There are some teams that you left off that said they are moving up, or thinking of moving up.

    UTSA-San Antonio is adding football and announced they will be moving up to BCS status.

    Texas State also said they are moving up.

    Lamar added football, and they said they are moving.

    Georgia State, Sam Houston State, N.C.-Charlotte, U. Mass., Jacksonville State, James Madison, Appalachian State, Delaware, Liberty and some others are also thinking of moving up. If the Big East don’t lose their teams? Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, Temple, Buffalo and Charlotte could be in the mixed as new Big East teams. Villanova could be there as well.

    Youngstown State could go on into the MAC as well.

  5. I am not sure where you are getting your info, but good topic.
    I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more.
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